A PARTNERSHIP IN RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Hunter Councils – the Hunter Regional Organisation of Councils – and the Hunter Valley Wine Industry Association have been working collaboratively to identify the impacts of climate change on the Hunter Valley Wine Industry. This work builds upon the outcomes of research recently released by Hunter Councils that projects the impacts of climate change in the Hunter at seasonal and sub regional scales for the period 2020 – 2080.
The case study resulting from this work is being officially released today by Cr Alison Davey, Acting Chairperson of Hunter Councils and Mayor of Cessnock City, at the Hunter Valley Table Lunch. This case study is the first of four that will be released over the coming months that aim to apply the broader regional research findings to a specific industry level.
The case study aims to provide an analysis of projected impacts on the industry using climate indices identified by growers themselves. These include extreme heat days, heat degree days, diurnal range, harvest maximum temperature and frost.
The nature and scale of risk posed by projected changes in these indices and potential strategies for responding to these have been identified by industry representatives and documented in the case study. By doing so, the case study aims to provide a template for other industries on how to strategically identify and manage the projected impacts arising from climate change on their activities.
The study also identifies a need for further research. For example, shifts in the growing season may give rise to a need to explore alternative grape varieties and propagation materials..
In commenting on the Case Study, Cr Davey said:
The Hunter Wine Industry is well recognised as a core component of our region’s economy not only in terms of production but in its flow on effects to tourism and other supporting industries. Ensuring the long term success of the industry in a changing climate is therefore extremely significant to the Hunter as a whole.”
I am therefore more than pleased that Hunter Councils and the Hunter Valley Wine Industry Association have been able to work so closely together in carrying out this leading edge research and in ultimately developing this truly important document.
By exploring the potential impacts of climate change on the industry and identifying proactive strategies for managing these impacts, I am confident that the case study will contribute to the long term sustainability of wine making in the Hunter,” she said.
Hunter Valley Wine Industry Climate Change Case Study
Background
- Hunter Councils and the Hunter Valley Wine Industry Association have been working collaboratively to identify the impacts of climate change on the Hunter Valley Wine Industry. This work builds upon the outcomes of research recently released by Hunter Councils that projects the impacts of climate change in the region at seasonal and sub regional scales for the period 2020 – 2080.
- The case study resulting from this work is being officially launched by the Mayor of Cessnock and Acting Chair of Hunter Councils Alison Davey at the Hunter Valley Table Lunch on 16th October 2009. This is the first of four different case studies that will be released by Hunter Councils in the coming months which aim to apply the broader regional research findings to an industry / sector level.
- The Hunter Wine Industry is well recognised as a core component of the region’s economy, not only in terms of production but its flow on effects to tourism and other supporting industries. Ensuring the long term success of the industry in a changing climate is therefore significant to the region.
- The case study and the research that underpins it are leading edge not only in NSW but across Australia and demonstrate the commitment by both the wine industry and councils in the Hunter to tackle climate change head on. By exploring the potential impacts of climate change on the industry and identifying proactive strategies for managing these impacts, the case study will contribute to the long term sustainability of wine making in the region.
Purpose & Structure of the Case Study
- The case study aims to provide an analysis of projected impacts on the industry using climate indices identified by growers themselves. These include extreme heat days, heat degree days, diurnal range, harvest maximum temperature and frost.
- The nature and scale of risk posed by projected changes in these indices and potential strategies for responding to these have been identified by industry representatives and documented in the case study.
- In addition to exploring specific impacts on the wine industry the case study also aims to provide a template for other industries for strategically identifying and managing the projected impacts of climate change on their activities.
Summary of key risks and adaptation responses identified
Extreme risk
Nature of risk – projected increases in extreme heat days may impact on fruit health and composition, harvesting and processing activities and water use efficiency.
Potential adaptation responses – Given the industry’s already significant experience with extreme heat events and the relatively small projected increase in their frequency, existing best practice management techniques are considered appropriate for managing this risk.
Major risks
Nature of risk – Projected increases in winter minimum temperature could reduce chilling hours and increase the prevalence of pest and diseases. Reduced chilling hours can change carbohydrate storage levels and fruit composition, while crop loss and spoilage can result from increased pests and disease.
Potential adaptation responses – changes to vine management practices and the selection of propagation materials and varieties, along with increased levels of pest monitoring and management programs.
Nature of risk – projected Increases in the incidence of spring frosts could cause crop loss and vine damage.
Potential adaptation responses – ensuring appropriate site selection and design of new vineyards, changes to the selection of propagation materials and varieties, implementation of best practice cultural practices, research into and application of anti stress agents and investment in frost abatement technologies.
High risk
Nature of risk – projected increases in the level of heat degree days, winter minimum temperatures and diurnal range could influence fruit composition, condense growing seasons, increase crop loss and spoilage and defer the timing of annual pruning practices. Increases could also cause vines to enter dormancy later in the season, cause erratic bud burst and changes to fruit composition and harvest dates.
Potential adaptation strategies – wine maker education and consultation to improve understanding of the potential risks and opportunities arising from condensed growing seasons, potential increases in winemaking infrastructure to increase throughput, and continued implementation of best practice management approaches to vineyard site selection and vine management practices.
Summary of historic and projected changes in climate
Statistically significant historical trends in climate that have been identified for the Hunter Valley Wine region include:
|
Climate Variable/Indicator |
Historical Trend |
Amount |
|
Heat degree days (summation) |
Increasing |
~3⁰C per annum from 1958-2008 |
|
Winter minimum temperature |
Increasing |
~1.7⁰C from 1957-2007 |
|
Annual frost days* |
Decreasing |
~24 days between 1957-2007 |
|
Daily Pan Evaporation (winter and spring) |
Decreasing |
~1mm/24hr for winter, ~0.8mm/24hr for spring from 1970-2007 |
|
Average annual 3pm humidity |
Increasing |
~5.5% from 1973-2007 |
* Although a statistically significant decreasing linear trend is evident, two distinct cycles are present. The average frost days per annum for the period from 1957-1971 is ~26 whereas the latter period from 1972-2007 records only ~7 frost days per annum.
Projected changes in climate affecting the Hunter Valley Wine region include:
|
|
|
|
Precipitation |
No significant change in overall average rainfall patterns, however a return to higher and more variable patterns similar to those experienced during the 1948-1976 period is projected. |
|
High rainfall events |
Increases during summer, autumn and winter. Decrease during spring. |
|
Minimum temperature |
Increases during summer, autumn and winter and a decrease during spring in the western zone Increases during autumn and winter and decreases during summer and spring in the central zone |
|
Maximum temperature |
Decrease during summer and spring and increases during winter and autumn |
Conclusion
- Current industry best management practices already in place due to a historically variable climate mean that the Hunter Valley Wine Industry is already well placed to deal with some of the risks that have been identified. A key strategy for adapting to climate change will therefore involve educating new and existing industry members on the importance of these practices.
- For the management of other risks, implementation of the adaptation strategies identified (eg vine management practices, selection of alternative propagation materials and varieties, & increased levels of pest monitoring and management programs) may need to be integrated into future industry management and production practices.
- The need for further research has also been identified to better understand the potential impacts of climate change. For example, in response to projected increases in diurnal range, such research could include exploring potential alternative grape varieties and propagation materials and quantifying the impacts of shifts in growing seasons on wine production.
